McKinsey's Manyika Shows 4 Forces that Upend All We Knew

We live in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) time. While some may imagine the disruption to future outcomes, the evidence shows most of us have failed to understand how quickly these forces will impact our lives.

A compelling article crossed my LinkedIn account earlier this week. If you are looking to understand disruption and the impact it will have on the future, James Manyika, Director of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has provided a well researched and well written article you must read. 

Manyika illuminates four forces:

• The first disruption is the shift of economic activity to emerging-market cities - Manyika suggests that by 2025, nearly half of the Fortune Global 500 companies will be based in emerging urban economies, with China home to more of them than the United States or Europe.
• The second disruption is the acceleration of technological change. While technology has always been transformative, Manyika shows the impact is now ubiquitous - It took more than 50 years after the telephone was invented for half of American homes to have one, but only 20 years for cellphones to spread from less than 3% of the world’s population to more than two-thirds.
• The third disruption is population dynamics (demographics) - Manyika suggests that for the first time population could plateau as population aging spreads to China and Latin America.
• The fourth disruption is the world’s interconnectedness - Manyika observes that goods, capital, people, and information flow ever more easily across borders. Capital flows among emerging economies have doubled in just ten years, and more than one billion people crossed borders in 2009, over five times the figure in 1980.

Wisdom literature speaks clearly about how useless 'looking backward' is to moving forward whether one is ploughing a field or trying to gain an understanding of the future.

"Today it's even more dangerous to make pronouncements about the future using intuition shaped by the past", says James Manyika, Director of McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).

James Manyika, MGI

What does this mean for you and your organization? Manyika's observations suggest being community centric, embracing technology, serving a changing demographic and being connected to others are all elements of the way forward. 

More significantly, I believe you will find value by imagining the world as it will be ten or twenty years out. If you are unable to imagine this future, I would suggest you obtain the services of someone you trust to challenge your thinking and help you build this view. From this new perspective look back to the present and test the forecasts, decisions and strategies you are considering to ensure they will position your organization correctly for the future you have imagined. 

While this exercise may not produce a plan that gets it all right, you will be better served than looking backwards as you future-proof your organization.






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