TD Canada Trust Found a Way to say Thanks

In the age of digital media it is easy to lose the emotional connection a brand needs with its customer. 

The 'TDthanksyou' program brought emotional connections into specific customer relationships. 

Now YouTube continues to leverage this program for all TD customers across their digital channels and applications.  

Have a quick look

McKinsey's Manyika Shows 4 Forces that Upend All We Knew

We live in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) time. While some may imagine the disruption to future outcomes, the evidence shows most of us have failed to understand how quickly these forces will impact our lives.

A compelling article crossed my LinkedIn account earlier this week. If you are looking to understand disruption and the impact it will have on the future, James Manyika, Director of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has provided a well researched and well written article you must read. 

Manyika illuminates four forces:

• The first disruption is the shift of economic activity to emerging-market cities - Manyika suggests that by 2025, nearly half of the Fortune Global 500 companies will be based in emerging urban economies, with China home to more of them than the United States or Europe.
• The second disruption is the acceleration of technological change. While technology has always been transformative, Manyika shows the impact is now ubiquitous - It took more than 50 years after the telephone was invented for half of American homes to have one, but only 20 years for cellphones to spread from less than 3% of the world’s population to more than two-thirds.
• The third disruption is population dynamics (demographics) - Manyika suggests that for the first time population could plateau as population aging spreads to China and Latin America.
• The fourth disruption is the world’s interconnectedness - Manyika observes that goods, capital, people, and information flow ever more easily across borders. Capital flows among emerging economies have doubled in just ten years, and more than one billion people crossed borders in 2009, over five times the figure in 1980.

Wisdom literature speaks clearly about how useless 'looking backward' is to moving forward whether one is ploughing a field or trying to gain an understanding of the future.

"Today it's even more dangerous to make pronouncements about the future using intuition shaped by the past", says James Manyika, Director of McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).

James Manyika, MGI

What does this mean for you and your organization? Manyika's observations suggest being community centric, embracing technology, serving a changing demographic and being connected to others are all elements of the way forward. 

More significantly, I believe you will find value by imagining the world as it will be ten or twenty years out. If you are unable to imagine this future, I would suggest you obtain the services of someone you trust to challenge your thinking and help you build this view. From this new perspective look back to the present and test the forecasts, decisions and strategies you are considering to ensure they will position your organization correctly for the future you have imagined. 

While this exercise may not produce a plan that gets it all right, you will be better served than looking backwards as you future-proof your organization.






Read the article

Store Closings Dominate the Headlines Today

Reading headlines this morning provoked thoughts of a changing retail landscape. Here are five that caught my attention:

• Future Shop stores closed across Canada.
• Target moves to accelerate - Closing 80 stores by Easter weekend.
• Ricki's, Bootlegger and Cleo owner Comark to close stores and restructure.
• Smart Set stores set to vanish as Reitmans restructures.
• Jacob to close all 92 stores. 

I remember in the mid 80's being sent to visit an Iranian family in Vancouver that owned the Future Shop brand. They outlined a plan for a new kind of electronics store. As one of Canada's largest distributors of electronics, they asked us to supply them with truckloads of entertainment merchandise to support a move across Canada as the dominant retailer. Lining up transport trucks of product was heady stuff, but it put us in the center of controversy as they disrupted our existing distribution in each major urban center. One by one, independent retailers surrendered and even regional chains were acquired or sacrificed to progress. Eventually Future Shop surrendered to Best Buy (2001 - $580 million) and now thirty years after my meeting the Future Shop brand is being eliminated from the retail landscape.

Looking around, there are few examples of independent retailers who have survived the changes of the past six decades. However, Bay Bloor Radio, (my first stereo client) was started by Sol Mandlsohn in 1946 and is still serving clients today. That they have survived is a credit to the vision of Sol and his wife Peppie as well as the hard work and evolution brought about by their son Mark. Bay Bloor was the toughest customer I ever had but I learned much about supporting a retailer, negotiating balanced deals and adopting good business principles from this family. One of their employees, Don Archer became my mentor in the audio business and was largely responsible for helping me become a subject matter expert in the sound reinforcement industry. The Bay Bloor story should inspire independent retailers who have built a reputation around long standing client relationships and personal service. Bravo Mark!

Whether an independent retailer or a big box store embracing change and positioning a brand to be relevant for the future is the primary element of sustainability. Standing still is not an option.

Brands: Moving from Awareness to Affinity and on to Amplification

Earlier this year I participated in a Google live streaming event with Gopi Kallayil, Google's Chief Brand Evangelist at Brand Marketing. His presentation was entitled Online Branding: Winning Customers in the Moment.

Recently they provided a YouTube link that allows me to share this with my colleagues. It is well worth the investment of time. I would encourage you to pay particular attention to the Brand Arc he draws. There are also some great examples of how brands developed an experience for their prospective and existing clients.

They also provide a link to the Google creative sandbox which I highly recommend for inspiration.

Google Creative Sandbox

Monica on the Price of Shame

The ugly side of social media and online presence is illuminated in this TED Talk by Monica Lewinsky.

How are 'brands' implicated as they use and pay for clicks to increase awareness?

Can the way consumers respond to 'click-bait' reduce or eliminate cyber bullying and harassment?

How do we bring compassion back into our response to story-lines and make a difference for those experiencing shame or embarrassment?

Can the way brands chase clicks be more responsible?

Will there ultimately be a backlash to an environment that facilitates the voyeur?

Kudos to Lewinsky for breaking the silence and bringing her story to us as a social activist. 

Have a look. Monitor your own response to 'Patient Zero' both then and now. You may be surprised by what you find. I was.

The Price of Shame

You can resond by tweeting to @MonicaLewinsky

Why do we need Facebook in the Payments business?

According to a Forbes report yesterday, Facebook is going after PayPal and the payments business through instant messaging. It sounds like a monumental move for the social media giant but I wonder why we need another payment option.

First a disclaimer, I closed my Facebook account several years ago and I've put all my networking energy into LinkedIn so I likely have a bias. Second, I moved my personal transfers to electronic payments in November of 2011 and brought my companies into the same regime mid 2012. 

Today, most of the financial transfers we do are through the banking system or through Interac. If you want to improve my life help me find a way to transfer to international payees through the systems I already use.

Facebook, does have big numbers of potential clients. I wonder how many of them will put up with the wait, "transfers may take a few days depending on the financial institution". I wonder how many already using E-transfer will see an advantage from the financial service they currently use. Finally, I wonder how strategic a 'me too' approach will work when the banks hold all or at least many of the cards and have an interest to provide their own services.

As the world gets smaller, it is becoming obvious there will be a concentration of primary services with those who already own a space and are providing a positive client experience. But I can still be surprised.

Does Friendship Pay??

How much will an organization pay for a new client?

Consumers are seeing fantastic new programs to influence their behaviors and sustain their loyalty. Many of these new programs feature cash. 

Recently, Alberta Treasury Branches (ATB), introduced a new program to attract Alberta clients. It pays $350 to open a new account, $150 to refer a friend who opens a new account (they get $350 as well) and $50 to sign up for their ATB Gold MasterCard. While this may seem aggressive in a downer provincial economy, it is well constructed. Albertans are looking at dollars and financial services even closer in an environment of lower oil prices and daily layoffs.

Changing the consumer mind is easier when you get above the clutter.

Will a client walk across the road to a new bank for $350? Why not? In the face of the Royal Bank of Canada offer earlier, ($50 to visit with a recent statement) the ATB offer is seven times more rewarding. The ATB campaign also takes advantage of the consumer network to spread the 'fire' with a referral program - "do the deal and tell your friends" - everyone wins.

How much are you paying for new clients? Take your marketing expenses and divide them by the number of new clients in a period to find out. Don't be surprised if the advertising budget has risen and the number of new clients has fallen. Just when many thought the internet could reduce acquisition costs, client acquisition investments have escalated.

By the way, paying for customers is not a new idea. Peter Thiel in his book "Zero to One" tells how they grew PayPal to the first million subscribers by paying $10 for each referred friend. That story is more than a decade old.

Friendship does pay at ATB! 

Brand and the Birth of Christ

Today my family and I celebrate the birth of Jesus Christ. As I wish you the best of all things Christmas, I also want to share some thoughts drawn from my experience as a brand analyst and from my experience as a student follower of Christ.

For the past while in brand activity, I have been interested in learning why, as we embrace social and smart technology, our communication lacks authenticity in the eyes and ears of those we seek to influence most. I wondered if analyzing the 'Christmas' brand could help understand authenticity in a brand strategy.

Three CBC radio presentations contributed to my thinking about the 'Christmas' brand: Last evening, as they have for 35 years, the program 'As it Happens' presented Al Maitland reading Frederick Forsyth's story, 'The Shepherd'; This morning CBC presented Handel's Messiah from the Basilica Notre-Dame in Montreal; and, a little later The Queen's Christmas message provided thoughts on truce and reconciliation.

'The Shepherd' is a story about a fighter pilot who is lost over the North Sea on Christmas Eve. He is rescued in a most remarkable way. A revelation for me was the pilot's openness to believe a rescue was possible in the context of the fears and challenges he faced. In brand building we seek to be discovered by those who are willing to accept what we have to offer. 

Today, one must search widely to find Christ in the 'Christmas' brand. However, when Christ was born, there was an openness to expect, to believe and to accept this little baby as the promised Messiah. The narrative of the birth of Jesus features angels, kings, wisemen, scholars, shepherds, onlookers and parents, all who experienced this birth within the context of their own knowledge, hopes and fears. From each point of view we see various responses to this little boy.

Handel's Messiah takes the listener on a journey featuring promise and prophecy as well as the life, death and resurrection of the Messiah. Handel sets to music a narrative we can understand as a fabulous construction (inventive manipulation of fact) or we can accept the narrative as it portends to be - the birth of God's son to redeem mankind, his rejection by those he came to redeem and his eventual triumph over evil and death. The degree of authenticity as this story unfolds comes from those who tell the tale from their own personal experience. In branding today we would call this kind of commendation 'word of mouth'. It has far more influence than all the 'likes' and 'Google pluses (+)' of social media applications. In the Messiah narrative, those who were healed or fed or who had witnessed Jesus in action passed along personal experiences that are unassailable by those around them.

In her message to the Commonwealth this morning, the Queen expressed her wishes for reconciliation and peace within the context of her own faith in Christ. In her message, she highlights the experience of those who accept the hope Christmas offers. 

Over the past year I have witnessed the comfort and peace Christ can bring to those who accept his love as they faced many challenges. The measure of a brand is the influence it can assert. The 'Christmas' brand continues to empower and bring hope to those who accept the simple message. As you enjoy Christmas 2014, I encourage you to analyse what has powered the 'Christmas' brand through the challenges of time and history. There are many lessons to be learned.

May the Joy and Hope of Christmas 2014 cause you to be a blessing to those around you! May comfort and peace abound in your life during 2015!

In an Uncertain Environment, Being Irrelevant is Death!

This morning two things happened that illuminate an important truth - being irrelevant in an uncertain environment is death to a brand.

1. After acknowledging they had lost contact with their client base several weeks ago, Sears, announced they are accelerating store closures in favor of a new focus on Ecommerce. Analysts are dissing Sears as a 'too little, too late' brand manager and there is growing evidence the brand may already be out of business.

2. My personal reading took me to check-in on Reid Hoffman, the co-founder of LinkedIn. An internet search located a presentation to graduates earlier this year. This presentation is really worth the investment of time to view:

http://www.businessinsider.com/career-advice-from-linkedin-founder-reid-hoffman-2014-12#

The highlights for me:

1. His worldview of relentless change and uncertainty and the need to be comfortable in this environment;
2. His extrapolation of feelings to the 'real' questions in life; and,
3. The three things successful people eventually figure out - Competition, Networks and Risk.

LinkedIn began in December 2002. I joined LinkedIn in the fall of 2006 upon the advice of Andrew Seto a colleague and investor at PetLynx Corporation. This network has become the source of great value to me with 11 million professionals around the world. According to industry reports, LinkedIn is now valued at more than 20 Billion dollars. Much of that value accumulated after the first decade in business. 

If you are in a service business, there are lessons to be learned from reviewing the LinkedIn path to success. However, I want you to focus on three things:

• Uncertainty is the common denominator of present experience.
• Irrelevancy is a disease no brand can survive. 
• Maintaining contact with the user/client base of your brand is the essential element to finding certainty and relevance.

Enjoy and Employ this wisdom in your career and in your brand management. 

Branducation:

1. How can you create a competitive advantage from the uncertainties you face?
2. What are you doing to maintain contact with your professional network, your brand users/clients and your personal network of supporters and mentors?
3. What risks are you incorporating into your activities and which risks are you avoiding?

Ben always looked for differences

How we Frame Content is Most Important

Digital media has placed all of us in the situation of texting, blogging, writing responses and online searching in a timely manner. We need to retrain our minds (frontal cortex) because how we frame things can bring very different results. Tom Trifaux recently shared this video with me.

By framing the need with elements of an 'experience', a whole different level of response occurred.

That's why four 'likes' and fifty cents won't buy you a cup of coffee, while a heartfelt 'thanks' can open up a whole new relationship or conversation. Agencies from the 'old economy' struggle to understand new rules and continue to push or spin messages toward clients who just desire one thing - an authentic experience.

TD Canada recently offered a live music campaign focused on 'saying thanks to customers' signing up to their new 'easyweb' service. They could have offered a special interest rate or cash like other banks but this way they contributed value by framing their offer in an experience they know their customers will remember for a lifetime. 

Experiences of a lifetime

We need to move to the other side of the market and begin to think like those we serve. We need to ask ourselves four questions:

What experience do we wish to create?
What message do we wish to convey?
How can we simplify the campaign?
Are we sure this is really what the audience desires?

Branducation:

1. Identify a deliverable experience that would please those you serve.
2. Discuss the experience referencing the questions above.
3. Illuminate how this experience is likely to be remembered.
4. Assess the competitive advantage this experience will provide.
5. Develop metrics and a process that can measure success.
6. Light the fuse

Rogers NHL Deal is a Bellwether for Those Who are Paying Attention

What does Dr. McLuhan, Roger's Communication, NHL and CBC have to do with the future of business? 

I think history will show quite a lot. Earlier this week, I wrote a blog for InfoStream pointing to the Rogers/NHL/CBC deal as an indicator of things to come. 

Dr. McLuhan once said 'the medium is the message' but he died in 1980 before the emergence of the internet. Now there is clear evidence that backs up his early thinking. 

The Internet facilitates disruptive innovation that has caused several stages of market evolution. The first stage involved the consolidation of demand in the market which allowed profits to build initially as the weak were gobbled up by the strong. The second stage involved the aggregation of supply lines which sustained profits by making the market more efficient for buyers and sellers with centralized portals. Now we are clearly entering into a third stage of disruption in which deconstruction of the modern media and delivery channels will take place. The lines between the medium and the message will be forever blurred.

The evidence is in this deal and it is all around us. Whereas consumers were forced to buy bundled content (cable, newspapers, etc) which allowed media to construct monopolies and harvest advertiser dollars, they can now deconstruct these bundles and structure their environment in ways that best suit their purpose or desire. Advertising agencies, brands and media are only now beginning to realize how disruptive this will be.

Witness the recent history of the New York Times. This long established newspaper was almost bankrupt, but now makes more revenue from its 700,000 subscribers than it does from advertisers. It has withstood severe disruption to the model and cash flow, reinvented itself and now has a billion dollars of cash in the bank. Furthermore, this cycle of fall, reinvent and rise again has all taken place in past six years. When our children tell their children about content delivery by way of rolls of newsprint thrown toward the front door each morning by the girls and boys of the newspaper delivery team, they are likely to find the story incredulous. 

Here's the InfoStream blog I wrote 

I'm just a farm boy from Crossfield but I find the pace and persistence of disruption, innovation and deconstruction to be fascinating. I hope these words will help the reader understand why I think those who own the PetLynx utility will be rewarded for their patient development of media, channel and message to serve the largest group of citizens who live in modern urban municipalities.

Is Your Investment in a Facebook Social Media Program Doomed?

There are many researchers and analysts who wonder about the value of a Facebook social media program in branding. Here's a posting on InfoStream that may give you pause to rethink your investment.

InfoStream Post

Larry's LinkedIn Metrics

Here is my LinkedIn network report. Thank you to those who have joined the conversation! 

YOUR LINKEDIN NETWORK (2013July31):

993  Connections link you to 8,816,892+ professionals

38,440 New people in your Network since July 27

Get Connected

Agency Change Accelerates as Brands Move to Other Media

Earlier this week, two giants of the advertising world (Publicis Groupe and Omnicom) merged to create the number two ($22.7 billion) player in the advertising game (Google leads, $50 billion). Analysts have not been kind to the advertising industry in general and have noted that a re-factoring of the industry was in progress. New models are expected to become widespread as brands turn away from 'Agency of Record' (AOR) contracts to focus on in-house or licensed digital media capabilities.

“Our industry is not limited to a handful of people. There are new people coming over the line to what was traditional advertising every single day.” (John Wren, Chief Executive of Omnicom, NYTimes)

“We see the lines have been blurred between the various functions and the various players" (Maurice Levy, Chief Executive of Publicis, NYTimes)

This merger seems to be focused on aggregating brand advertising dollars and budgets. However, the shift to preserve competitive advantage has actually been underway for sometime. Meredith Corporation's acquisition of TV/print channels and Nestle's acquisition of PetFinder are two other examples. Meredith is an example of another agency response - vertically integrating to exclusively touch millions of women across North America. Nestle is an example of acquiring the largest adoption channel in North America to preserve a point of market entry POME (the largest channel of adopted animals) for its Purina brand.

The PetLynx utility is exploring a fourth option. Like the Weather Company in its sector, Petlynx has gathered up the largest number of urban animal owners as well as the largest data base of urban animal information and purchasing habits in Canada. Like others using this model, PetLynx gathers these consumers with Service Portals. PetLynx licenses agencies and large brands to access these consumers on an opt-in basis. Since there are many brands and agencies in the Urban Animal Industry unable to acquire or manage their own digital channels PetLynx becomes a useful alternative.

David Kenny, a former Publicis executive who now runs the Weather Company, which includes The Weather Channel and weather.com, said that platforms like his are now working directly with companies to develop advertising campaigns, especially on mobile devices, essentially bypassing ad agencies. (quoted from NYTimes)

Which model will dominate the future? It seems they will all exist initially, but a bet on the PetLynx/Weather Company model long term should be safe. This model should always have the lowest cost of acquisition and the highest level of support from consumers because it is an opt-in service.

For consumers, the merger is another signal that the business of marketing is becoming more personalized, often based on information that consumers may not even be aware they are sharing, including Web habits, social media activity and credit card histories. (Quoted from NYTimes)

New York Times Article

Branducation:

1. In your opinion, which of the models identified is likely to be successful in your industry sector?
2. One model uses an 'opt-in' approach, one model consolidates advertising buys, one model owns consumer channels and another preserves a point of market entry. Briefly discuss the differences you see and advantages or disadvantages you would expect.

Are You Achieving a Win with Social Communication?

Branding isn't what you tell people. Branding is what people tell their friends about you.

Over the past few months, on behalf of InfoStream we have been interviewing members of the Urban Animal Industry to understand how Social Communication Programs are working. Perhaps not surprisingly, experiences haven't been uniformly positive and some have even abandoned or delayed further online involvement. Many of these conversations had similar expressions:

• Websites and interactive online ventures did not achieve the results expected
• Existing talent is already committed so asking them to take on 'social' is an imposition
• Re-posting content from other sites hasn't been effective in developing traffic
• Acquiring original content is expensive and hard to sustain
• Online conversations on media such as Facebook, when negative is hard to manage
• Supporting a real-time Twitter feed is exhausting
• Achieving presence in a noisy online environment is more difficult than expected

Last week a TEDxYYC presentation was published. Google expert, Chris Adamkowski talks candidly about 'Connecting in the Digital Age'. The video shows how online presence is more about 'Being invited In' than 'about cutting through the clutter' (rising above online noise). Watch this five minute video and see if it helps you understand how to 'invite someone in'. 

Branducation:

1. Is your organization connecting in the digital age?
2. What metrics did you create to measure performance?
3. In what ways have your expectations been met or not met?
4. Provide (in 200 words or less) a discussion of how you will achieve your branding goals online. 

On Rhythms, Patterns and Synchronicity

Last evening, Paul Kennedy, the host of CBC's regular program 'Ideas', repeated a broadcast that originally aired in April of this year. The program explores how synchronicity develops in nature. From Fireflies to a beating heart to groups of people naturally falling into step, there is evidence of synchronicity all around us. 

Can we understand these mechanisms and how they may relate to the development of consciousness in the human brain? Can understanding the importance of 'being in step' assist with social communications and the development of successful brand programs that serve the needs of clients?

Listen to 'The Heart of the Beat'

The first Branducation blog about synchronicity and the Firefly effect was July 2012. A follow up blog in August showed how Draft horses synchronize and step to the music.

Branducation:

1. Why is rhythm an important occurrence in nature?
2. How would rhythm influence the cost of a brand program?
3. How does being 'in step' with culture and nature add brand strength and loyalty?
4. Support your answer to question two with no more than 200 compelling words!

Trying to find a rhythm

Larry's LinkedIn Metrics

Here is the LinkedIn network report for my account this morning. Thank you to those who have joined the conversation! 

YOUR LINKEDIN NETWORK

768Connections link you to 8,371,751+ professionals

24,430New people in your Network since June 29

Do you know WHO I AM?

Flying home from Ottawa on Friday evening gave me time to consider my experience while in our nation's capital. The visit was remarkable:

Do you know who I am?

• The RCMP launched a criminal investigation of 'ExpenseGate' (Mike Duffey and the PMO);
• Senator Pamela Wallin faced the media in a CBC interview with Peter Mansbridge;
• Thomas Mulcair, leader of the opposition (NDP), drove through all the stop signs and security gates on the way to his assigned parking stall on parliament hill; and,
• The new CSIS building boogled my fiscal imagination - an amazing show of 'intelligence'.

Being a farm boy, I couldn't help thinking about entitlement. Two questions need to be addressed:

1. Do you know who I am? (Thomas Mulcair to RCMP)
2. Who is entitled?

On the first, if you ask this question of someone, the answer is clear. 

"You my friend, are a self serving, equivocating and perhaps even arrogant person, who believes the rules don't apply because of your station or role."

One can imagine this kind of thinking, would take a person in short order from a place of humility, reason and example, to a place where:

• public funds can be misappropriated;
• covering up and spinning what really happened is okay;
• an expectation that the rules were not meant for you; and,
• fiscal responsibility is for those governed not those governing.

At this point the 'servant leader' dies and an entitled, arrogant, equivocator is born.

On the second question, only one answer makes sense 'those served' are the ones who are entitled. Full stop! 

Citizens, tax payers, clients, employees, members, shareholders and others served, are those who are entitled. They are entitled to truth, transparency, respect, fairness, loyalty and good service. But, we see this is not often the case in government, in business, in education, in security, in religion and in community. 

Why do these elements seem hard to grasp for those who serve? Maybe it's because at one time or another, we all imagined ourselves as a ruler (lessor god), able to command and place those around us under the 'thumb' of authority we envisioned. 

Do we all wish to be king? It seems so. And while some of us give up this fairy tale, others are driven by it. And that is why, in our day and age, we must teach people to be servant leaders.

On Father's day 2013, I pause to reflect on two important questions:

• WHO AM I? 
• WHO DO I WISH TO BE?

Dad - a servant leader

Michael Dubin's New Video - Thinking Naked about #2

At the 'Think Naked' event last week in Calgary, Woodruff Sweitzer showed Dollar Shave Club's video from last year. It's a good example of a small budget production that has gone viral and essentially elevated a new company and concept onto a success track. And it happened in an environment that has been dominated by big budget productions from the likes of Gillette and Axe.

Yesterday Michael Dubin launched Dollar Club's #2 video.

The New York Times asks if a Shaving Company can duplicate the success of the first video. It provides an interesting read and the answer to 'why #2'.

I'm just a farm boy, but I wouldn't bet against this one. I see the elements of another run-away! And if I was the marketing director of a big budget brand company this would give me pause and send me off to review my brand investment strategy.


Branducation:

1. What are the essential elements of a video that will go viral?
2. What is the relationship between budget and a successful production?
3. Will viewership translate into sales for DollarShaveClub?
4. Get 'Naked' and support your answer to question three with no more than 200 compelling words!

Thunder Ridge Run-Aways

Predicting the Future - Understanding Risk and Uncertainty

In his book 'Leaders make the Future', Bob Johansen talks about a VUCA world. A world that is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. I thought so much of this book that I made it the 'Summit 2102 Leaders Library' selection. The Summit provided a copy to every delegate. Upon reflection, it seems to me that we need to understand the difference between risk and uncertainty to develop a good strategy for the future.

Nate Silver

Nate Silver in his book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't (Penguin, 2012), shows that for the most part, the agencies we trust are either “unable or uninterested in appreciating the distinction between risk and uncertainty.” Silver suggests risk is something that can be calculated. You can put a price on risk. For instance, we often 'price in the risk' we face on a purchase or investment. Some even calculate the 'risk' of winning or losing while they gamble. 

By contrast, Silver shows that uncertainty has become a risk "that is hard" if not impossible to measure with  strict attention to mathematical models and predictive equations. According to Silver, “Risk greases the wheels of a free-market economy; uncertainty grinds them to a halt." In a day and age when marketers are asking us to trust their 'predictive models' and explore 'Big Data' can we be sure this is the path to a sustainable future? 

I think not. Perhaps we've arrived at a time and place where intuition, experience, common sense and the intellectual gifts humans possess may be the tools that prevail. If you have $20 to invest in your future, I suggest reading Silver's book. 

I'm a farm boy and uncertainty has always been part of agriculture. We till the ground and plant the seed but rely on a higher power for the sun and rain. Dealing with uncertainty involves understanding, expectation and faith. It seems to me these elements are states of mind or mindfulness which allow you to separate signals from noise and that is useful as you consider the future.

Thunder Ridge Farming